Christophe CasalegnoAutoimmune warrior, Entrepreneur & Bio/Hacker

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The price of a billion

By Christophe Casalegno on in Business
Christophe Casalegno

I am going to confess something to you.

When I was younger, I wanted to be a billionaire, before I turned 30… but I had absolutely no idea how to do it.

You may find this crazy or megalomaniacal, but about a dozen years ago, with the experience I had accumulated, my skills, my profile, my network and above all a much more precise understanding of certain economic and entrepreneurial mechanisms, I finally understood what I had to do and how to carry it out to give myself what I considered a reasonable chance of reaching that goal within 5 to 10 years.

I am obviously not talking about a magic recipe, because there is no path that guarantees becoming a billionaire, but about a strategy and a way of carrying it out that seemed credible enough, suited to my abilities and realistic enough for me to seriously consider putting them into practice.

And it was precisely when I understood what to do and how to do it that I decided to give it up.

Why?

Do not read this as some grand philosophical decision about money, power or the meaning of life, or a sudden epiphany that revealed to me that money does not buy happiness. The reason was much simpler and more pragmatic: I now knew the price of carrying it out, and I was quite simply not ready to pay it.

Not the financial price, of course, but the human price.

I knew exactly what this kind of path would demand in time, energy, stress, mental bandwidth, risk-taking, hiring, management, organization, constant trade-offs, travel and, more generally, the ability to put this project before everything else for years on end.

I was already earning a good enough living to live comfortably, do the things I loved, spend time with the people I love and hold on to the freedom I had spent years building in the first place.

I no longer saw any rational reason to trade such a substantial part of my life, my most precious asset, for a few extra zeros, even a lot of zeros.

I had understood how to reach the goal, but I had also understood what it would cost me, and the benefit/cost ratio was too unfavorable.

Then came these past three years.

Gradually, month after month, I began to see things that demanded enormous human or financial resources become simpler, faster and more accessible.

First with large language models, then with the tools capable of using those models, and finally with the arrival of agentic systems capable of more than simply answering a question or producing content: they could actually link tasks together, reason about an objective, develop, test, analyze, search, document, supervise or coordinate part of their own work.

And since February 2026, my latest experiments have seriously shaken that conviction.

My ambition has not changed, but what has changed is the cost of carrying it out!

For a long time, there was an almost mechanical relationship between a company's capacity for execution and the size of the human organization required to produce it. Even though I have always been good at doing more with less, a glass ceiling was still there.

If you wanted to multiply your capacity for production, development, research, operations or support, you had to hire more people, then hire or promote other people to coordinate those people, create processes, hierarchical levels, communication tools, control mechanisms, meetings, reporting systems and all that organizational machinery I hate, and which inevitably ends up consuming a substantial share of the energy it was supposed to multiply.

Beyond a certain scale, you no longer spend your time building products, services, solving problems or understanding your clients. You spend your time building and maintaining the organization that builds the product, solves the problems and understands the clients.

And it was precisely for that part that I had no desire to sacrifice ten years of my life… Yet agentic systems are clearly breaking (smashing) that relationship.

For the first time, execution capacity is no longer limited by the human factor. It may seem trivial put that way, but in economic terms, it is enormous!

A very small company can now have a capacity for development, research, analysis, automation and operations that would have required hundreds of people barely a year ago.

And given the current speed at which these systems are evolving, I think it would be extremely unwise to assume that we are close to a ceiling. Even without further evolution, the current capacity of the tools has just abolished that limit.

I am not talking here about using artificial intelligence to "be more productive" or more effective, but about the possibility of changing the economics of building a company far more fundamentally.

Real execution capacity can now grow much faster than the number of humans required to produce it. The consequence? The organizational constraints that historically imposed a certain minimum size in order to reach a certain economic scale are being vaporized.

Does that mean it is becoming easy to build a company worth several billion? *no*!

You still have to find or create a large enough market, build something that really delivers value, know how to distribute it, have a sufficiently lasting competitive advantage, take risks, make the right decisions at the critical moments, avoid a few very bad decisions and, because it is a variable that many entrepreneurs sometimes like to forget when they tell their story in hindsight… also have a measure of luck!

Artificial intelligence does not eliminate competition, economics or chance, but it eliminates a substantial part of the human price that I previously considered irreducible.

And that is where, for me, the question becomes interesting. A dozen years ago, the question I was asking myself was essentially whether I was ready to sacrifice a substantial part of my life to try to enter the three-comma club. My answer was no, but today, the question is different.

Is it now possible to build a company worth several billion without building, in parallel, the immense human organization that historically seemed necessary to reach that scale?

Is it possible to use agentic systems not merely as extra tools inside a traditional company, but as a fundamental part of its architecture, to gain a level of leverage that would have been impossible only a few years ago?

And, more personally, is it possible for me to attempt this adventure without sacrificing my family life, the things I love to do, and my health, which has already paid enough?

A few years ago, I would have answered no without really hesitating. Today, after what I have seen and tried these past months, I am no longer at all certain that the answer is the same.

And that is probably what fascinates me most about this period: we talk a great deal about what artificial intelligence is going to replace, automate or transform, but perhaps not yet enough about what it is going to make possible for individuals or very small organizations which, until now, were mechanically limited by their human capacity for execution.

Could a company made up of a few people, surrounded by agentic systems capable of carrying out a considerable share of the intellectual and operational work, one day have effective capabilities comparable to those of an organization of several hundred people?

I believe so. And if the answer is yes, how far can this asymmetry go?

For a few months now, I have caught myself mentally reopening a file I had closed a long time ago: the race for the three commas! (those who get the reference will understand)

Not because I suddenly need a billion: a few million are enough for me, nor because the goal has taken on any particular importance with age… But because I am starting to wonder whether the experience I once turned down because of its cost has become, twelve years later, a completely different experience.

So, am I finally going to decide to get back into this race? My decision is imminent. :)

For a long time, I wondered whether I was ready to pay the price to enter the three-comma club.

Today, the question knocking around in my head is whether that price still exists!

Good evening to you all.

—
Christophe Casalegno (find all my social links at: all.bo)

5 comments

  1. Salut Christophe,

    Tu oublies une conséquence essentielle de l’IA sur le marché : ce qui est produit aujourd’hui n’a plus la même valeur qu’hier. L’IA réduit fortement le temps, les compétences techniques et les investissements nécessaires pour fournir de nombreux services. On ne peut donc plus raisonner avec les mêmes prix ni espérer les mêmes marges.

    Certes, l’expérience reste un avantage important. Mais désormais, tous les concurrents ont accès à une expertise considérable grâce à l’IA. Même une personne seule et débutante peut rapidement atteindre un niveau autrefois réservé à des équipes expérimentées.

    Nous avons donc tous gagné en puissance, en productivité et en capacité de réalisation. Mais puisque cette progression bénéficie à tout le monde, elle ne facilite pas nécessairement l’enrichissement individuel : elle élève simplement le niveau général de la concurrence. Nous sommes collectivement plus performants, mais il reste aussi difficile qu’auparavant de se démarquer et de créer une véritable valeur économique.

    Bien à toi

    1. Bonsoir Olivier, ça fait plaisir d’avoir de tes nouvelles ;)

      Pour répondre à ton commentaire : je pense qu’on ne regarde justement pas tout à fait le même phénomène.

      Ton raisonnement serait assez juste si l’IA servait uniquement à produire aujourd’hui la même chose qu’hier, plus vite et avec moins de compétences ou de ressources. Dans ce cas, oui : la barrière à l’entrée baisse, l’offre augmente, certains services se commoditisent et les prix comme les marges finissent par être comprimés.

      C’est d’ailleurs pour cette raison que je « prédis » une forte abondance d’ici 15 à 20 ans, avec un coût marginal qui tendra vers zéro pour obtenir tout ce dont on a *besoin*, et un travail qui deviendra largement optionnel.

      Mais dans mon cas, c’est tout l’inverse, simplement parce que je ne produis plus la même valeur qu’hier !

      L’IA ne me permet pas seulement de réaliser en une heure ce qui m’en prenait dix. Elle me permet surtout de réaliser aujourd’hui des choses qui auraient nécessité hier des équipes entières et des années de travail, voire que je n’aurais tout simplement pas envisagé de faire parce que le rapport coût/bénéfice n’aurait eu aucun sens.

      Et économiquement, ça change complètement l’équation : si je produis davantage de valeur pour le client tout en réduisant mon coût d’exécution, ma marge ne baisse pas, elle augmente. C’est d’ailleurs exactement ce que j’observe aujourd’hui.

      Je ne pense pas non plus que le fait que tout le monde ait accès à l’IA signifie que tout le monde dispose soudainement du même levier. C’est même tout le contraire que je constate. Tout le monde avait déjà accès à Internet, Linux, Python, au cloud et à une quantité pratiquement illimitée de connaissance sans que cela produise pour autant les mêmes résultats chez tout le monde.

      Avant, entre quelqu’un de très bon et quelqu’un d’excellent dans son domaine, on va dire sur une note sur 100, il n’y avait peut-être que 10 points d’écart. Aujourd’hui, ces 10 points peuvent produire des écarts de capacité absolument gigantesques, parce que l’IA agit comme un multiplicateur.

      Le passable atteint le niveau du bon d’hier, mais le bon n’est pas resté tranquillement à sa place : il a décollé comme une fusée !

      L’accès à un outil et la capacité à construire quelque chose avec sont deux choses très (très) différentes.

      L’IA élève simultanément le plancher et le plafond. Elle va (très) probablement massacrer les marges d’une partie des activités commoditisables, mais elle donne aussi un levier absolument gigantesque à ceux qui savent l’intégrer beaucoup plus profondément dans leur architecture et leur modèle économique.

      C’est d’ailleurs précisément le sujet de mon article : ce qui m’intéresse n’est pas tellement de produire la même chose moins cher, mais de voir ce qui devient économiquement possible aujourd’hui alors que ça ne l’était tout simplement pas hier.

      Et sur ce terrain-là, mon expérience actuelle est plutôt l’inverse de la tienne : l’IA augmente mes marges, ma capacité d’exécution et la valeur que je peux produire simultanément.

      amicalement,

      1. Je comprends mieux ton point de vue et, surtout, ce que tes expériences récentes t’ont permis d’entrevoir. J’espère sincèrement que ton intuition se confirmera et que tu réussiras à atteindre tes objectifs sans avoir à sacrifier ce qui compte le plus pour toi. De mon coté l’IA me permet également de développer plus vite, de réaliser sans difficultés des prouesses inenvisageables pour moi seul auparavant dans mon logiciel VTC, mais au delà de cela je profite de beaucoup plus de temps libre, plus de stress de deadline, l’écriture des doc utilisateurs est pratiquement automatique, sauf qu’après les avoir tant réclamé ils ne les lisent même pas ! et surtout du temps pour jouer du piano (je sais que toi aussi ;) ) – bien à toi

        1. Salut Olivier, ça fait un petit moment que j’ai un peu (trop) délaissé mon piano, mais je vais y retourner, il y avait trop de choses à créer et en plus il y a eu un nouvel arrivant dans la famille (un Border Collie qui demande beaucoup d’attention xD). ça va le faire ;)

  2. Bonjour,

    Question intéressante, vraiment. Et très curieux de lire la suite.

    Mais j’aimerais la poser dans un contexte plus large : est-ce que c’est une bonne chose d’augmenter la productivité et de produire effectivement plus dans un monde dont les limites physiques craquent les unes après les autres ?

    Ne vaudrait-il pas mieux en profiter pour mettre en place le revenu de base pour tout le monde et diminuer notre temps de travail à tous ?

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